. . . and they all lived happily ever after
It’s day six of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and it doesn’t appear to be going as smoothly as Vladimir Putin had hoped. I’ve been completely absorbed by the conflict - checking news sources every hour or so. That Russia has chosen to invade Ukraine shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has been watching the situation since the annexation of Crimea eight years ago, but the predictability doesn’t dampen the outrage.
A lot has been written about Russia’s motivations for the invasion - and when we say “Russia”, at this point, we really mean “Vladimir Putin”. It’s his idea, his decision, his strategic move, his war. Russia cites NATO expansion as an imminent security threat, (it isn’t) and Russia says it was moving in to “de-nazify” Ukraine. (a bizarre fabrication)
So, we wonder what, exactly, is in Putin’s head. Maybe a little paranoia. People who live by force and manipulation always have to be alert for the next threat - real or imagined. Or maybe it is a nostalgic yearning for the good old days of the Cold War, when all other nations had to walk on eggshells in the presence of the Great Russian Bear. Either way, it’s a perspective that sees the world as one to be dominated by power, rather than relationships between nations. It’s not an illogical perspective, but it’s a tyrant’s, an egoists, a psychopath’s perspective. And of course, we already knew that about Vladimir Putin.
What did Putin envision? A quick military win over an easy opponent, with no serious response from the west, and then we all live happily ever after? It’s not working out that way, is it? Russian military performance hasn’t been as spectacular as one would have predicted. Their “shock and awe” has looked more like “shit and oops.” The resistance of the Ukrainian people, the resolve of the Ukrainian president, and the fierceness of the Ukrainian military punching above its weight have been an inspiration to anyone who loves liberty. And the western world, which suffers all sorts of divisions among its nations, has unified against Russia in a way that we haven’t done for any single cause since World War Two. I don’t believe Putin quite expected that.
Even among those nations which haven’t officially denounced Russia’s invasion, Putin has shown himself to be a liar - denying for weeks that an invasion was coming - and then ordering one. While Russia may maintain cordial diplomatic relations with some non-western nations, the ability of anyone to see Vladimir Putin as a stable, trustworthy ally must certainly now be compromised.
Putin, the aggressor, is now in a tough spot and I don’t see a good way out for him. He will likely win the military victory, but what will that get him? He’ll either install a puppet government or directly annex Ukraine into Russia, thus creating a buffer between Russia-proper and NATO. And, he’ll gain controlling access to Ukraine’s natural resources, manufacturing ability, agricultural land, and Black Sea ports.
But, he’ll also get a populace that hates him and will defy his governance at every opportunity. The Ukrainians will resist Russian power and will ALWAYS be a thorn in the side of the Russian-sponsored leadership. The Black Sea ports are currently off-limits, as Turkey, a coalition member, has the right to control access through the Bosphorus channel. Putin will have the ports, but will be unable to ship through them, unless he wants to force that issue by invading Turkey, too.
Putin will be unable to access much of Russia’s wealth as it will remain frozen in western hands, and he will not have the ability to pursue new business or participate in western financial markets as long as sanctions remain in place - which will be indefinite. Russia’s domestic economy will suffer as long as trade with the west is restricted, and the Russian people will only take that so long before they demand some kind of change, so Putin may be laying the groundwork for domestic unrest.
All nations rely upon international trade to keep their economies afloat, and Putin has now damaged his ability to do that. His trading partners are now limited to the usual Axis of Evil suspects: Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, Syria, as well as some non-committal nations in the middle east and China. And what does Putin have to sell to them? Can he sell enough AK-47s to the Taliban to prop up the Russian economy? Will he sell his oil to the Arabs? China might buy some of Putin’s natural gas - maybe even all of it. But can China buy enough gas to keep Russia’s economy alive? And if that comes to pass - that China is floating Russia’s economy - now who is the puppet, and who the puppeteer?
Even with a military victory, it is difficult to see how this invasion will have a net-positive effect on Russia’s position in the world. While he’ll probably win the war, he’s already lost the aftermath. Happily ever after? Not for Vladimir Putin.
The best-case scenario for Putin is to realize how this is not going to go well, and simply announce, “mission accomplished”, and pull the troops home. He can make some statement that the goal was to get NATO’s attention and remind the world that Russia is not to be trifled with. He could do that and probably hold onto his office as dictator of the Russian people. Sanctions would remain in place for a while, but would gradually ease and eventually we may return to a sense of normalcy in our relations.
But that’s not Putin’s style, is it?
As we see the images of wholesale destruction, Putin can no longer claim any moral high ground. He is clearly not liberating the Ukrainian people from nazis. He’s trashing the place and killing the people, simply because they are right next door, and have the audacity to embrace self-directed democracy, which points their nation more westward than eastward.
Putin will never fully recover from this. Instead of going down in history as the leader who brought Russia back to prominence in the post-Soviet era, he now signs his name in the book beside history’s other genocidal despots. His reputation and his legacy are wrecked, and maybe his whole country, too.
